Aditi Phadnis and Archis Mohan take a state by state takedown of the party's chances in the poll-bound states.
Today, as Jayalalithaa's friend, advisor and 'sister' Sasikala is also lodged in Bangalore Central jail, the former Tamil Nadu chief minister is where she was before: alone, all alone
The Karnataka government is divided over filing an appeal in the Supreme Court against the acquittal of former Tamil Nadu chief minister. N Sathiya Moorthy analyses the possibilities
Post Jayalalithaa's death, the Tamil Nadu government is in confused state.
'He was doing so well as the CM, which some vested interests didn't like.' 'They didn't like his stature growing day by day.'
'Going by his political conduct over the past 15 years since first becoming chief minister, he has made enough enemies among equals as friends and followers.' 'They could gang up and that could mean a lot for AIADMK politics to handle,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP at 43 is a work in progress, with total ideological continuity and much substantive change in political method and style, observes Shekhar Gupta.
'Human trafficking from Bangladesh is a regular phenomenon and those people come here to work or in search of greener pastures. They are all over the country. We are giving them legal recognition and making them citizens so that they don't have to live in fear,' says R Nataraj, AIADMK MLA from Tamil Nadu.
Even as political parties in TN have decided not to field a candidate against CM Jayalalithaa in the assembly by-election, the BJP's ambivalence has shown up once again.
She has been given the job to make candles and incense sticks.
Since the demise of former All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo and chief minister J Jayalalithaa in December last year, Tamil Nadu's political scenario has witnessed unprecedented drama. Following is the chronology of major events in the southern state's ruling party.
The Opposition, which had been demanding that the bill be referred to a 'joint select committee', staged a walkout when its demand was rejected by the government.
Already, there is a feeling even within the BJP's AIADMK ally that the BJP is overdoing things on the ED/I-T front, as corruption is not an election issue in the state -- as long as the people are otherwise not excessively unhappy with the governing party, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Tamil chief minister suffered a heart attack on Sunday evening.
The man who led this journey is 50-year-old Kalanithi Maran, chairman and managing director of the Sun Group.
As political rivals clamour to retain their pan-Tamil credentials, the BJP may use the 'nationalist' card to even the odds in its favour, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Though another 75 candidates are in the fray, the Elangovan-Thennaruasu fight has become a prestige battle for the DMK and AIADMK, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Met department forecast heavy to very heavy showers in north coastal Tamil Nadu till Saturday.
'Let me stick my neck out and say that Tamil Nadu will keep alive its reputation for landslide election verdicts, with the DMK front winning at least 30 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats going to the polls in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry,' says Saisuresh Sivaswamy.
"The day news of the SP-BSP top leadership meeting came out, the BJP government used the CBI and raids were conducted in an old mining scam and the news of quizzing Akhilesh Yadav was deliberately spread. Is it not an action to defame the SP-BSP alliance?" Mayawati said.
Tamil Nadu's politics returns to being bi-polar, and that's a good thing, says B Srikumar.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier called for consensus in passing the bill.
DG (Prisons) rejected allegations, saying action will be taken against DIG D Roopa.
The Congress and the Left parties might move court to challenge LS speaker's ruling on Aadhaar as money Bill.
Panneerselvam also remained firm on his faction's demand for a probe into late J Jayalalithaa's death.
'There is no doubt that Sasikala wanted the transition to go this way.' 'The only thing the AIADMK MLAs want is to stay in power.'
'The irresistible charm of Indian politics is it can always throw up surprises -- even when it looks as predictable as in Tamil Nadu,' discovers Shekhar Gupta.
As the merger brought to an end weeks of suspense during which there was tough negotiations, the two factions said steps would be taken to expel party chief V K Sasikala.
'It stands to reason that if a CM is hospitalised for long durations, and is perceived to be not fully functional, that it is the governor's Constitutional duty to ascertain by diligent efforts and arrive at a dispassionate conclusion about the CM being physically fit and mentally alert to discharge his/her Constitutional obligations,' says B S Raghavan, the distinguished civil servant.
Tamil Nadu Governor K Rosaiah on Friday accepted the resignation of Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and invited All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief Jayalalithaa to form the new government.
Pandian alleged that Jaya died under unnatural circumstances and demanded a probe on her hospitalisation.
Amid a stalemate between the government and the Opposition over the issue, the House failed to transact any significant business and was adjourned for the day.
Tamil Nadu has around 30 per cent or more of 'swing voters', and it is this segment that will swing the pre-poll alliance decision, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Having burnt his fingers with MGR very badly in the past and later with Vaiko, it suited the DMK chief, when disgruntled cadres upset with Stalin's choice for lower-rung party positions, began gravitating towards another member of the DMK's 'first family', says N Sathiya Moorthy
The party's Lok Sabha MPs Jaisingh Thiyagaraj Natterjee (Tuticorin), Senguttuvan (Vellore) and R P Marutharaja (Perambalur) extended their support to Pannerselvam.
Good intentions and elaborate roadmaps apart, there is an urgent need for the Tamil Nadu chief minister to come up with branded schemes like MGR's meal scheme, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
A meeting presided over by Palaniswami said the appointment of Dinakaran as deputy general secretary was against party rules.
Despite the BJP's displeasure over Sasikala's elevation as AIADMK general secretary, the Dravidian party has sent a message to the Modi government that it will not be cowed down, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The DMK still wants to look elsewhere for excuses to its electoral debacle, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The case of the two Shiv Sena factions for legitimacy and the party symbol, 'Bow and Arrow', is now before the Election Commission. Whichever way the EC findings go, the other can be expected to move the Supreme Court. They would need a final verdict before the parliamentary polls, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
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